The Next President

On the record:

The next president is very likely to be Hillary Clinton. Everything is lining up for her. The only thing that can defeat her is the reality of her politics being discovered by the handful of centrist voters who will decide the election.

One can argue that her getting the vote of all democrats is a given. (Of course, the ultra-leftist, fractious, and extreme wing in the party could abandon her, since realism isn't their strong suit.)

And her high "opposed no matter what" polls largely can be interpreted to mean that she will not get any republican votes.

Only those in the middle can be swayed, and there are few of them.

She must capture them, but the problem that she faces is largely that she is quite far left, wearing the mantle of centrism.

If she cannot carefully avoid the colllectivist ideas and words of her secret hidden nature she'll alienate the middle. This middle, for all their ambivilance between right and left, are ultimately American, individualists, and view socialism askance, even while enjoying the Americanized version of it.

If she pushes overtly to the left, she will lose them. And lose the election.

If she can retain the centrist illusion, she will likely win them and the election.